As a student of political science and history I'm trained to look at patterns, trends and past examples; gazing into those crystal balls supposedly makes it easier to predict the future.

   But some things simply defy conventional wisdom.

   While most of the year's presidential campaigns started up earlier than ever the all-but-declared candidate, former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.), is taking a pause before entering the 2008 race, a move that forces many observers to scratch their heads. It was first rumored that the lawyer-turned actor-turned senator-turned actor would throw his hat into the ring sometime last spring, and again in June, and then around July 4. Now, aides say, he'll officially declare in September.

   Despite repeated delays most national polls show the senator already within striking distance of frontrunner Rudy Giuliani (R-N.Y.). Thompson's shadow campaign, which began as a whisper, has met a roar of approval from grassroots hungry for a consistent, charismatic conservative.

   It appears that Thompson has both the numbers and the momentum needed to launch a viable campaign. So why wait to declare?

   Though I'm relatively new to the political game, it seems to me that the gentleman from Tennessee is trying to play a clever hand.

   With all the hype and the great expectations Thompson doesn't want to disappoint. Instead, it seems, his plan is to wait until everything falls into place; then come out swinging.

   The decision to wait gives the former senator a chance to improve his operation in a number of ways. First, it allows him to build a better staff. With John McCain's sudden implosion many of the Arizona Republican's former staffers are now out of work and are ripe for the picking. Rumors abound that the Thompson team has begun courting members of that experienced organization.

   Second, Thompson will be able to better refine his message. Formerly a low-profile senator, some have questioned whether he is anything more than an empty suit, a nice voice spouting hollow words. Taking the time to formulate a clear, substantive message can pay great dividends farther on down the road.

   By biding his time on the sidelines Thompson can also wait for other candidates to beat each other up, a luxury he won't have once he formally declares. Indeed, the hits have already started coming his way. In recent weeks potential opponents from both parties have attacked Thompson over his lobbying record.

   The Politico's Jonathan Martin has also noted that Thompson's late entry means he's not obliged to participate in upcoming debates. At this point in the campaign, Martin claims, debates are a high-risk, low reward venture for major candidates. And, since he hasn't debated an opponent since 1996, Thompson's almost certainly a little rusty. A little extra time training might come in handy.

   But besides self-improvement, there may be a shrewder motive behind Thompson's delay. Former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) has long said he won't make a decision on whether to run until after Labor Day, but it is now believed that he will only get in if Thompson falls flat. The longer Thompson waits to enter the race the less chance there is of doing exactly that. If he does hit a bump in the road somewhere along the line it might be too late for Gingrich to get involved.

   This "run-out-the-clock" strategy is not without risk. As The Atlantic's Mark Ambinder noted, "The longer Thompson waits, the more likely the story becomes the waiting, rather than the candidate." Indeed the former senator's incessant delays might cause the rank-and-file's patience to wear thin. Thus far their support has been his greatest asset, leading Richard Land of the Southern Baptist Convention to say "I have never seen anything like this grassroots swell for Thompson."

   Letting this popular excitement fizzle out could erode Thompson's comparative advantage, he already begins this race with less money and a weaker organization than other candidates. This erosion may already be beginning as Thompson raised only $3 million in June, considerably short of his $5 billion goal. The waiting game may be, in reality, a balancing act.

   A successful strategy depends on how long Thompson keeps his powder dry. Land went so far as to claim that the race is his to lose:

   "It may be a convergence of the right man, in the right place and at the right time" Land said.

   That timing seems to be the key.